Did Steroid Use Enhance the Performance of Mitchell Report Hitters?
According to a new study published in Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS)—Did Steroid Use Enhance the Performance of the Mitchell Batters? The Effect of Alleged Performance Enhancing Drug Use on Offensive Performance from 1995 to 2007 by Brian J. Schmotzer, Jeff Switchenko, and Patrick D. Kilgo—the answer is yes.
Conclusions: This analysis suggests a significant and substantial performance advantage for players who used steroids during the study period. It is estimated that offensive production increased approximately 12% in steroid users versus non.
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Statisticians Examine the Mitchell Report’s Findings
Earlier this week, I posted a link to a study published in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that looked at the changes in performance by players discussed in the Mitchell Report. Frank Stephenson took the study to task for not properly interpreting the data. In today’s New York Times, two professors with strong backgrounds in statistics, Jonathan Cole (sociologist, Columbia) and Stephen Stigler (statistician, University of Chicago), report their analysis of players mentioned in the Mitchell Report. For pitchers identified by the report, we looked at the annual earned run average for their major league careers. For hitters we examined batting averages, home runs and slugging percentages. We then compared each player’s yearly performance before and after he is accused of having started using performance. [lien] [EN]
What Does the FSU Cheating Scandal and the Mitchell Report Have in Common?
By JP, from Pyle of List With the release of the Mitchell Report this week, after months of feverish anticipation, baseball fans and the media finally have an official list of names connected to performance enhancing drugs. While there is some substantial evidence linking these names to the indiscretions we always suspected them of, the distinct lack of a “smoking gun” detracts from the report’s impact. However, it is the closest thing we have to proof that hundreds of players in MLB have been cheating for roughly a decade. Across town in College FootballVille, 25 FSU football players were caught cheating in their online class. Several FSU employees were also implicated in the scandal. First of all, how in the world do these guys have online classes in the first place? Secondly. [lien] [EN]
A Response to My Critique of the Mitchell Report Study
I have received a response to my critique of Did Steroid Use Enhance the Performance of the Mitchell Batters? The Effect of Alleged Performance Enhancing Drug Use on Offensive Performance from 1995 to 2007 by Brian J. Schmotzer, Jeff Switchenko, and Patrick D. Kilgo. What follows is the authors’ response. I will comment on this response within the next few days. I thank the authors for responding to me. — — — Dear J.C., We read your review of our paper on your sabernomics.com website. In the interest of the pursuit of the truth, we have constructed a reply. We would be grateful if you would post it on your site. We have pasted our reply below. Please let us know if a different format would be helpful. Thanks for your consideration. -Brian Schmotzer. [lien] [EN]
My Response to the Mitchell Report Study Response
My response to Brian J. Schmotzer, Jeff Switchenko, and Patrick D. Kilgo’s reply to my criticism of their study follows. I would like to thank the authors for offering their response; however, I do not think their explanations succeed in validating their study. First let me address a few minor issues about which I will not go into significant depth. I have no problem with mixed effects, it just isn’t the model I would have used. In fact, in my initial critique I stated, “I suspect that it ought to get the job done”. Aging also is not a big issue, but I am appreciative that the authors took the steps to re-estimate their model according to my previous analysis. It appears that aging adjustments do not make much difference. I see that our disagreements boil down to two points on which I will focus my remarks. [lien] [EN]
Carl Hates the Mitchell Report
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Gary Sheffield, Four Former Tigers Named In Mitchell Report
The much anticipated (for a variety of reasons) Mitchell Report was put out yesterday and at least in my opinion, it didn’t live up to the hype. Most of the report centered around Kurt Radomski’s testimony and while he had evidence, you’re talking about a lot of fringe players to go along with a few [...] [lien] [EN]
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Mitchell Report Open Thread
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What Do the Statistics Say about Roger Clemens’s Steroid Use?
In an interesting move, Roger Clemens has fired back at Brian McNamee’s steroid allegations in the Mitchell Report. Using a report of his own, his representatives examine his late-career performance as a pitcher. After reading through the report, I became inspired to do my own investigation. I present my analysis below. I have received no financial compensation, but I will disclose that I do own a Clemens rookie card. Clemens’s study looks at his performance in reference to the changing playing environment of the league. For many potential reasons (e.g., new ballparks, expansion, juiced balls, etc.) the run environment dramatically changed over the course of Clemens’s career. To combat any bias from this, the authors of the study compare Clemens’s ERA to the average of the league. [lien] [EN]
How is Steroid Use Suddenly A Partisan Issue? (Or, Republicans Defend The Rich Guy Against The Whistleblower, Again)
I don't care about baseball. Of the major sports, it is my least favorite. I don't devote much effort to following sports at all, but I follow boxing most closely, followed by Formula One, Scottish football and … well, everything else is far, far behind. I watch more of the Stihl Timbersports series in most years than baseball. (No, really.) So I was not exactly waiting on the edge of my seat for the Mitchell Report. I did note, however, that the hearings about steroids have mostly been moralizing and grandstanding, which are always bipartisan issues. Politicians love to adopt the posture of moral scolds. Yesterday, though, a partisan pattern emerged, I think for the first time. For those playing catch-up today, as I was yesterday, here's the scoop: legendary pitcher Roger Clemens. [lien] [EN]
Mitchell Report Thread
Around 2pm today the Mitchell Report will be released. In it, it is rumored to recommend that there be greater transparency in the drug program, such as naming the drugs that players test positive for. Some players try to dodge responsibility for positive tests by saying they unwittingly took a tainted diet supplement. Certain drugs could not possibly have come from supplements, but because baseball doesn't name the substances it discovers, the press and public can't determine whether the player is telling the truth. The sources would not reveal the names of players included in the report, but confirmed that as many as 80 are listed. One lawyer expected several "very, very high-level names" to be exposed Both lawyers told ESPN that the report assigns blame for the rise of performance. [lien] [EN]
How Informed Are Steroid Users?
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Thoughts on the Mitchell Report
I do not know what I may appear to the world, but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy on the sea-shore, diverting myself now and then finding a smoother pebble or a prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me. -Sir Isaac Newton It's been four days since the Mitchell Report was released to the public, and while some new people and details have been made known, I don't believe it accomplished what the commissioner thought it would. Because Major League Baseball did not grant Senator Mitchell subpoena power, no one was obliged to speak unless obliged by an outside power. The two major new sources would not have divulged anything without the spectre of criminal charges staring them in the face. At best this report gave us a tiny glimpse of the truth. [lien] [EN]
Pete Rose takes shot at the steroid bunch …
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