IKEA Delivers Couch With Missing Cushion, Insists On Replacing Entire Couch [Common Sense]

Sur le même thème que "IKEA Delivers Couch With Missing Cushion, Insists On Replacing Entire Couch [Common Sense]"

Improve Your Finances With Common Sense @ The Roundup

Despite not have a day job anymore, I’m busier than ever doing some contract work as the company blog editor of a financial startup (which you may be familiar with ). I’m also still trying to keep up with my own blog along with trying to keep house, with being the designated driver for my kids, PTA rep, financial manager of the household and all around errand runner. The digerati spouse on the other hand pours his entire days working on his “best digital camera site” project, which is chugging along at a decent clip. Our new lives haven’t changed much from our old ones, in terms of time still being the scarcest resource for us. Who said “retirement” was going to be easy? No, I haven’t slowed down much since cleaning out my office desk. I did manage to retire from my corporate career, but since then replaced it with a life that I hope to have more control over. So far, as expected, I’ve got more balance in my life and am happier about it; but well… we still got to worry a bit more about our finances as we try to build our ventures and live as self-employed individuals. Overall, this is definitely a positive change for me, resulting in less stress and increased satisfaction over the work I do. Hopefully, the money angle can eventually improve as well! Personal Finance Reads · The Simple Dollar: Take control of your destiny at work with these insightful tips. I also see these suggestions as ways to increase our value at work. · Lazy Man and Money: Do you feel poor? I like these points that Lazy Man made about how to improve our financial state. · Money Smart Life: Wanted: financial common sense! Common sense is indeed what we need to survive the housing bust and the shifts in our current economy. · Gen X Finance: Jeremy shares a sad story about a couple who met with foreclosure. But who’s at fault? · The Sun’s Financial Diary: Sun gets into the ground floor with Visa, who had a spectacular IPO launch this week. · Free Money Finance: I tackled the issue of health care earlier this week. And so has FMF, who has this piece on how to pay for health care during your retirement. · Mighty Bargain Hunter: If you need a way to remind yourself about paying your bills, especially if you’re paying them manually, then partake of this clever idea. · No Credit Needed: These I like: some cool suggestions on how to teach your kids about money, counting and making change. · All Financial Matters: Are you a likable person? We become more likable when we smile and try to be more positive, upbeat and cheerful. Being a good listener and ditching the temper helps too! Additional Readings · Retire When Now? @ Dividend Days · 20 Reasons Why Credit Cards Are Worse Than The Other Woman @ Apply4-Credit · Taking Full Advantage of Time Off @ Richer By The Day · How To Protect Yourself Against Recession @ Mom Grind · Personal Finance QuickTake: Financial Market Mess @ Life, Liberty and The Pursuit of Money · Tipping Etiquette: Do You Tip on Tax? @ Queer Cents · Buying A Property With $0 Cash Down @ The Financial Blogger Recent Carnivals · Hot Finance Carnivals! · Carnival of Money Stories · Festival of Stocks · Money Hackers Carnival · Personal Finance Money Tips · All Women Blogging Carnival · Carnival of Family Life [lien] [EN]

Common Sense and The Perils of Predictions

Common Sense and The Perils of Predictions2 Guest essay by Michael R. Smith, C.C.M. [PredictionsForDisaster] Forbes, “Absolute Return” column, April , page : Here’s another name you should own, Freddie Mac ($9 per share)…Freddie is cheap at 1 times book [value]. Less than five months later, Freddie Mac’s stock was worth 5¢ per share, a loss of 9%.  It has since recovered to 0¢ per share, so the loss is “only” 6%. A forecast of a stock of a single company five months into the future seems easy.  The company had government backing (federally sponsored corporation).  What could go wrong? Yet, the forecast published by Forbes, short of an outright bankruptcy, could not have been more inaccurate.  It is worth examining how a situation that seemed rock solid (government-backed securities!) became catastrophic to see if there are any lessons that might apply to the atmospheric sciences. The assumptions that Freddie Mac (and other financial stocks) were low risk was primarily a result of computer models.  As one expert stated (using pseudonym at http/blogs.zdnet.com/Murphy/?p=5 ), The problem is inherently complex – imagine being asked to value a portfolio of 0 residential mortgages issued to a total of something like 2 individuals. Each mortgage balances some issue amount against some payment stream; each has had zero or more payments recorded against it, each has an initial interest rate; an interest computation method; zero or more early payment opportunities; some mention of late or missed payment penalties and conditions, and an expiry, renegotiation, or call date. While I do not doubt that is “complex,” the level of complexity is miniscule when compared to the complexity of the earth-atmosphere-ocean system and their interactions. Yet, faith in these model valuations led to a prediction that Freddie Mac stock was “cheap” when a meltdown of the financial system, largely due to the incorrect valuations and risk estimates by computer models, was less than 0 days away. After the meltdown occurred, a second Forbes article stated, “All existing models for calculating risk, he [Nassim Taleb] says, should be thrown out because they underestimate extreme price swings. ‘The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad,’ he says.”  (February , p1)  Of course, we learn this after our home values and values of our 1K’s are wrecked. Given the failure of these models to predict the implosion six months hence, would you invest the remainder of your 1K on what the same model predicts for the next six years or, if you are in your 0’s, what it predicts for sixty?  I don’t know what your answer might be, but common sense would indicate applying the forecasts from these models to your portfolio with extreme caution. June , we learned from The New York Times that “Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin.”  The model predicted, according to the Times, “by the end of May, there would only be 0 to 0 cases in the United States…  On May , the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were upwards of 0 cases in the country…” Just six months earlier, the models’ predictive capability were touted because of real time input from Google (www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/nov8google-jw.html ).  Now, the flu has been declared a “Pandemic” by the World Health Organization (/www.pandemicflu.gov/ ) in spite of the modest number of cases projected to be in existence by June, by the models. Another critical short-term modeling failure. Question:   If the model predicts low risk for the next six months, would you decide to forego a flu shot?  Again, your answer might be different, but common sense would dictate getting the shot. How do these examples relate to climate modeling and policy? We currently have climate models that have missed the fact that atmospheric temperatures peaked 1 years ago and that oceanic heat content has, at best, failed to increase. See: http/climatesci.org/large-uncertainty-in-the-simulation-of-the-global-average-surface-temperature-by-the-ipcc-models-a-study-reported-on-the-weblog-the-blackboard, http/climatesci.org/update-on-a-comparison-of-upper-ocean-heat-content-changes-with-the-giss-model-predictions, among many others. Given the inadequate performance of these models over the last 5 to 0 years, why do we believe we can make accurate, highly specific forecasts 0 to 0 years in the future? Is it because we are so close to the problem we are blinded to the dangers like the economists who did not see the meltdown coming? Almost no one familiar with meteorology or climate models would disagree that they are more complex than the mortgage valuation or influenza prediction models.  The basic processes of the earth-ocean-atmosphere are incompletely understood and we barely understand many of their interactions. We also know that forecasting the weather beyond five days is dicey at best.  Then why are we making -day weather forecasts? Don’t think we are doing that?  Consider the following: “By the period , devastating heat waves of the kind that killed more than 0 people in Chicago in 5 will occur three times per year.”  (USCCP, p, citation below) That is a weather forecast – a forecast of specific meteorological conditions at a specific time and place.  The document is filled with similar predictions, along with recommendations based on those predictions. We are sometimes told that climate forecasts can be made because the “weather” errors will be cancelled out because they are “random.”  Here is what was said about the mortgage computer models, Now, because you can predict roughly the probable range for most of these assumptions but not the actual values the variables involved will have for each of the time periods you have to consider, what you do is write a monte carlo simulation in which you try tens of thousands of value combinations and plot the results to see what, on average expectations, the portfolio might be worth. Notice, that at this point even something as large as 5% error in the outcome would be completely insignificant – so randomization error should have no effect, right?  (op. sit.) It was believed by most the mortgage instruments were safe because the errors (i.e. a higher default rate of subprime lenders) would cancel out (because the risks were spread) and because, if desired, default insurance could be purchased from institutions like AIG.  Of course, AIG used similar models to determine its risk.  We just learned how well that worked. In spite of these spectacular failures of less complex computer modeling in economics and public health, the atmospheric sciences seem to be making similar miscalculations. If your common sense would lead you to disregard these models’ forecasts when planning your portfolio and whether you get a flu shot, I would suggest we adopt a much more modest approach to the use of climate models. While they are useful research tools, the numerous uncertainties (cloud feedback, particulates, volcanic ash, the current quiet sun, etc.) are so great we cannot claim to have forecast skill decades into the future. Otherwise, when I read, during a period of falling temperatures and ocean heat content,“Global warming is unequivocal,”* I hear, “Freddie Mac is cheap.” U.S. Climate Change Program, Key Finding #, January, http/downloads.climatescience.gov/sap/usp/prd/usp-prd-executive-summary.pdf. Michael R. Smith is CEO of WeatherData Services, Inc. An AccuWeather Company, and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.  This weblog represents his personal opinion. AccuWeather’s Global Warming Blog can be accessed at: http/global-warming.accuweather.com. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated) The Moon as a Crystal Sphere. Myron as a Postgraduate, Biography by Kerry Pendergast, OQO Model 2s suffering from failing main boards?. [lien] [EN]

Hillary Clinton Tells Common Sense Media She Would Support Video Game Legislation

Last week, GamePolitics reported on Common Sense Media’s survey of the 2008 presidential candidates and where they stand on media issues, including those related to video games. While the initial response from candidates was somewhat sparse (only John Edwards, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and Bill Richardson replied in time for CSM’s release deadline), Sen. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, has now weighed in. Here is CSM’s question on the topic of video game legislation, posed to Clinton and other responding candidates: To date, nearly 10 states have considered legislation to keep violent video games out of kids’ hands. Would you support this type of legislation at the federal level? What other strategies would you support to keep the video game industry and other media companies from marketing and selling inappropriate content to children? Here is Sen. Clinton’s response: When I introduced the Family Entertainment Protection Act [FEPA] two years ago, I did so because I felt that video game content was getting increasingly violent and sexually explicit, yet young people were able to purchase these games with relative ease while their parents were struggling to keep up with being informed about the content. Sen. Clinton describes what FEPA would have mandated, had it passed:  On-site store managers would be subject to a fine of $1,000 or 100 hours of community service for the first offense and $5,000 or 500 hours of community service for each subsequent offense. The bill would also require an annual, independent analysis of game ratings and require the FTC to conduct an investigation to determine whether hidden sexual content like what was in Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas is a pervasive problem and to take appropriate action… Finally, the bill would authorize the FTC to conduct an annual, random audit of retailers to monitor enforcement and report the findings to Congress. FEPA was prompted by the Hot Coffee scandal, said Clinton: I was motivated to take action when I found out that there was embedded illicit sexual content in Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas. The [ESRB] was unaware of the embedded content. I called on the FTC to investigate the source of the content and, as a result, the company issued a recall of the game. When I am president, I will work to protect children from inappropriate video game content. Sen. Clinton described for CSM her biggest concern about media as a parent: Research has shown that violent and sexually explicit media contribute to aggressive behavior, early sexual experimentation, obesity, and depression. Whenever I meet young parents… they tell me that they are worried about losing control over the raising of their own children and about ceding the responsibility of implicating values and behaviors to a multi-dimensional media marketplace over which they have no control… Studies have found that exposure to TV violence can increase the risk of aggressive behavior in children and may be related to attention problems later in life. And some experts say that time spent watching too much TV or surfing the Internet or playing video games may detract from the time children spend interacting with their parents, participating in physical activity, or using their imaginations.  This entry was posted on Friday, December 21st, 2007 at 10:10 am and is filed under Controversial Games, Politics & Legislation, Video Game Critics, Game Consumer News, Game Decision 2008, Media, First Amendment. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. [lien] [EN]

Security Common Sense

During the last couple of years we have seen major developments in terms of securing the server as well as the desktop, though it has been mostly the desktop that has caught our interest due to its vulnerable by default nature. The desktop has become the primary target for attackers and it seams that this trend will continue to grow during the upcoming 2008. Some my argue that we have done well, as a community, and the desktop and the server a lot more secure then before, but only a few will admit that what we have achieved is not exactly what we’ve wanted. 2007 was the year in which we’ve destroyed the Security Common Sense. [lien] [EN]

Wii gamers need more common sense

Filed under: News, Screens If you were hoping to get a crack at Otona No Joushikiryoku Training DS, well, too bad. That's one DS training game that isn't yet on board for an English-language release, but it does seem to be headed toward the Wii ... at least, in Japan. The non-game focuses not on common sense as we often colloquially use the phrase, but more on "general knowledge." For example, in the above screen, players are asked to locate the Caribbean Sea. From some of the other screens (handily included in our gallery below), we can see that the title focuses on a variety of skills and knowledges that are useful, from tying a tie to cultural information. Perhaps the Wii title will have a better chance of crossing the globe, considering the ever-expanding casual market, but for now, we'll have to settle for a little free translation training from the kanji-heavy screens. The Wii version heads out to Japan in March. Gallery: Common Sense Training (no English title) Permalink�|�Email this�|�Linking�Blogs�|�Comments Ads by Google [lien] [EN]

Quote: William James on Common Sense and Sense of Humor

"Common sense and a sense of humor are the same thing, moving at different speeds. A sense of humor is just common sense, dancing." - William James, American psychologist and philosopher (1842 - 1910)via Tombo’s Blog [lien] [EN]

Executive Compensation: Common Sense, Not Politics

Herb Greenberg (MarketWatch) submits: There is no greater a critic of corporate abuse than yours truly. And by political standards, a somewhat left-of-center critic, at that. But when it comes to CEO pay, it’s about common sense, not politics. Complete Story » [lien] [EN]

Common Sense Media Fearmongers GTA IV for Donations

GamePolitics received an e-mail ealier this week with an unusual subject line: Keep Grant Theft Auto IV Away From Kids - Donate Now The solicitation was from watchdog group Common Sense Media, which awarded itself some of the credit for the video game industry's recent impressivegains in retail ratings enforcements: When Common Sense Media was founded just five years ago, the latest data from the FTC suggested that kids could walk into a store and buy an M-rated game, like Grand Theft Auto, nearly 70% of the time. That figure was simply unacceptable. Since then, we've worked closely with other advocates, parents, legislators, and retailers to end the sale of M-rated games to underage gamers. New data from the FTC shows that number has fallen to just 20%. We're proud to see this vast improvement, and with your help, we can bring that number to zero. CSM also accused GTA IV of the now-standard litany of offenses: Games like Grand Theft Auto IV promote murder, sexual exploitation, and violence towards women. Exposure to this type of violence, which is common in most M-rated games, at a young age has been shown to make children anti-social, numb to violence, and more aggressive. Of course, what CSM's message is really about: Donate today... The picture at left, which suggests a pairof adolescents playing GTA IV,accompanied the e-mail. [lien] [EN]

Dave Ramsey’s Bailout Alternative: ‘The Common Sense Fix’

This is presented in its entirety, on the safe assumption that the talk-show host doesn’t mind, and wants his suggestions widely known. I don’t agree with his proposal 100%, but I can surely live with it. It beats the daylights out of the nationalizing, corrupt group-subsidizing, blackmailing proposals being worked up in Washington (blackmail evidence is here and here). Ramsey also has a text file of what follows and a 3-step action plan, so that those who wish to contact their representatives can use part or all of the language as a basis for contacting their representatives. THE COMMON SENSE FIX Years of bad decisions and stupid mistakes have created an economic nightmare in this country, but $700 billion in new debt is not the answer. As a tax-paying American citizen, I will not support any congressperson who votes to implement such a policy. Instead, I submit the following three-step Common Sense Plan. I. INSURANCE A. Insure the subprime bonds/mortgages with an underlying FHA-type insurance. Government-insured and backed loans would have an instant market all over the world, creating immediate and needed liquidity. B. In order for a company to accept the government-backed insurance, they must do two things: 1. Rewrite any mortgage that is more than three months delinquent to a 6% fixed-rate mortgage. a. Roll all back payments with no late fees or legal costs into the balance. This brings homeowners current and allows them a chance to keep their homes. b. Cancel all prepayment penalties to encourage refinancing or the sale of the property to pay off the bad loan. In the event of foreclosure or short sale, the borrower will not be held liable for any deficit balance. FHA does this now, and that encourages mortgage companies to go the extra mile while working with the borrower—again limiting foreclosures and ruined lives. 2. Cancel ALL golden parachutes of EXISTING and FUTURE CEOs and executive team members as long as the company holds these government-insured bonds/mortgages. This keeps underperforming executives from being paid when they don't do their jobs. C. This backstop will cost less than $50 billion—a small fraction of the current proposal. II. MARK TO MARKET A. Remove mark to market accounting rules for two years on only subprime Tier III bonds/mortgages. This keeps companies from being forced to artificially mark down bonds/mortgages below the value of the underlying mortgages and real estate. B. This move creates patience in the market and has an immediate stabilizing effect on failing and ailing banks—and it costs the taxpayer nothing. III. CAPITAL GAINS TAX A. Remove the capital gains tax completely. Investors will flood the real estate and stock market in search of tax-free profits, creating tremendous—and immediate—liquidity in the markets. Again, this costs the taxpayer nothing. B. This move will be seen as a lightning rod politically because many will say it is helping the rich. The truth is the rich will benefit, but it will be their money that stimulates the economy. This will enable all Americans to have more stable jobs and retirement investments that go up instead of down. ************* This is not a time for envy, and it's not a time for politics. It's time for all of us, as Americans, to stand up, speak out, and fix this mess. Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, and President Bush should be asked why Ramsey’s proposal isn’t acceptable. [lien] [EN]

Leaving IKEA Empty-Handed [Frugality]

I was in IKEA last night to replace a file cabinet. They didn't have the right one but I picked out a close approximation. While I was waiting in line I thought, what the hell am I doing dropping $160 on a stupid box just to hold my hanging folders? So I got out of line and abandoned my flat-packed box and resolved to see what the nearby STAPLES has to offer tomorrow. Have you found yourself abandoning stuff in the checkout line more often? Or otherwise reevaluating and cutting back on certain kinds of purchases lately that in the past you might have made without thinking? (Photo: Ben Popken) Read More: Help! IKEA's Delivery Guys Smashed My iPod! , IKEA Delivers Couch With Missing Cushion, Insists On Replacing Entire Couch , Check Your Own Receipt Before You Leave The Store , Ikea Joins Walmart In The Possible Homage To Vonnegut Design Gang [lien] [EN]

Top 10 Geeky IKEA Hacks [Ikea]

Lifehacker has 10 neat IKEA hacks. That's right, toss the manual and start making your own cool Scandinavian-infused furniture mods. In particular, I enjoy the tutorials on making an Allen wrench drill bit and embedding scrap bowls into your counter top. I remember reading one time on the IKEA hacker blog about how you could "make" a couch by binding together a series of the same chairs with plastic ties. That was pushing the bounds a bit, but most of these are straight-up useful, especially if you're a nerd. Top 10 IKEA Furniture Mods [Lifehacker] (Photo: joelgoodman) Read More: Leaving IKEA Empty-Handed, Help! IKEA's Delivery Guys Smashed My iPod!, IKEA Delivers Couch With Missing Cushion, Insists On Replacing Entire Couch, Check Your Own Receipt Before You Leave The Store [lien] [EN]

Missing: One Celebrity Belly Button And One Sense Of Inhibition [Missing Links]

It's no longer shocking to see a celebrity waltzing around the beach post-op (Courtney Love, anyone?) but, thankfully, most celebs remember to remove their bandages before donning their itsy bitsys. But what if said bandages are there for life? And in the form of their own flesh? Well, if they belong to surgery-happy Patricia Heaton, we will all have the pleasure of viewing them! In light of recent photos showing Ray Romano's television wife in her bikini and missing one bellybutton, the Huffington Post dug up some slightly unreadable details on the magically disappearing must-have and the revelations, like the photos, are not pretty: "My belly button was herniated. Then there was that skin that hung there. It didn't work to suck it in. It wouldn't have mattered if I had done 1,000 sit-ups. " More pictures, if you dare, after the jump. Even after happily displaying her lack of a tickle-inducing button the way Kyle XY glides through life missing the capacity for joy, Heaton still speaks highly of her surgical usurping, writing "I would recommend it to anyone," regarding her tummy tuck. Just one thing we'd like to add to Patty's go-for-it gusto: make sure you have other areas of your body in which to store lint before pressing forward. That is all. [Photo Credit: celebrity-gossip.net] · WHAT STAR LOST HER BELLYBUTTON? SHE HAS ADMITTED TO A TUMMY TUCK [HuffPo] [lien] [EN]

Time Warner slowly replacing entire staff with robots [Cylons]

Time Warner CEO Jeffrey Bewkes has already begun terrifying other media moguls with yesterday's announcement of up to 1,000 layoffs at his writer-strike-plagued film studio Warner Bros., layoffs that... [lien] [EN]

Empty Words Delivered Well

Peggy Noonan reflects on Barack Obama's speeches. She judges him to be a brillant speaker - provided you don't actually read the words he delivered so brilliantly. Delivering words well is not eloquence. Barack Obama's biggest draw is not his eloquence. When you watch an Obama speech, you lean forward and listen and think, That's good. He's compelling, I like the way he speaks. And afterward all the commentators call him "impossibly eloquent" and say "he gave me thrills and chills." But, in fact, when you go on the Internet and get a transcript of the speech and print it out and read it–that is, when you remove Mr. Obama from the words and take them on their own–you see the speech wasn't all that interesting, and was in fact high-class boilerplate. (This was not true of John F. Kennedy's speeches, for instance, which could be read seriously as part of the literature of modern American politics, or Martin Luther King's work, which was powerful absent his voice.) Mr. Obama is magnetic, interacts with the audience, leads a refrain: "Yes, we can." It's good, and compared with Hillary Clinton and John McCain, neither of whom seems really to enjoy giving speeches, it comes across as better than it is. But is it eloquence? No. Eloquence is deep thought expressed in clear words. With Mr. Obama the deep thought part is missing. What is present are sentiments. Noonan knows speeches and speechwriting well, of course. She knows the territory, so to speak. I would point out that there is a huge difference between true eloquence, truly delivering great thoughts in a brilliant manner and acting. Actors can take meaningless dialog written by a hack writer and deliver them brilliantly. So far, that is what Obama appears to be doing: delivering boilerplate exceedingly well. That is not to say that meaningful words have not been delivered during this campaign, as Noonan goes on to point out. It's just that the words that have have a meaning have not been uttered by the candidate himself: His problem was, is, his wife's words, not his, the speech in which she said that for the first time in her adult life she is proud of her country, because Obama is winning. She later repeated it, then tried to explain it, saying of course she loves her country. But damage was done. Why? Because her statement focused attention on what I suspect are some basic and elementary questions that were starting to bubble out there anyway. Here are a few of them. Are the Obamas, at bottom, snobs? Do they understand America? Are they of it? Did anyone at their Ivy League universities school them in why one should love America? Do they confuse patriotism with nationalism, or nativism? Are they more inspired by abstractions like "international justice" than by old visions of America as the city on a hill, which is how John Winthrop saw it, and Ronald Reagan and JFK spoke of it? Have they been, throughout their adulthood, so pampered and praised–so raised in the liberal cocoon–that they are essentially unaware of what and how normal Americans think? And are they, in this, like those cosseted yuppies, the Clintons? Why is all this actually not a distraction but a real issue? Because Americans have common sense and are bottom line. They think like this. If the president and his first lady are not loyal first to America and its interests, who will be? The president of France? But it's his job to love France, and protect its interests. If America's leaders don't love America tenderly, who will? I am seeing more and more media analysis pointing out just how devoid of real meaning much of what Obama says really is. I suspect that this trend is going to continue as the media honeymoon Obama has been enjoying begins to give way to hard scrutiny. [lien] [EN]